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Chinese DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles featured in its huge military parade in Beijing on October 1. Photo: Xinhua

China ‘won’t win more respect’ if it expands nuclear arsenal following calls from national media, analyst says

  • Editor of nationalistic tabloid wants Beijing to increase warheads to 1,000, including at least 100 ballistic missiles that can reach US mainland
  • But analyst says argument made by Hu Xijin and others isn’t convincing, and such a move could harm China’s credibility and national interests

Calls for Beijing to expand its nuclear arsenal reflect its rocky relations with Washington, and any reckless moves could damage the nation’s credibility, according to an analyst.

Ties between the two countries have deteriorated sharply since Washington labelled Beijing a strategic rival in 2017, and belligerent opinion leaders in China have called for the People’s Liberation Army to add to its stockpile of nuclear warheads to deter an “increasingly irrational” United States.

The latest call came on Friday, when Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of nationalistic tabloid Global Times, posted on social media that China should increase its nuclear warheads to 1,000, including “at least 100 DF-41” intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the US mainland.

They are the PLA’s most powerful land-based ICBMs and 16 of them featured in a huge National Day military parade in Beijing in October – each able to carry up to 10 nuclear warheads. The Chinese navy has also tested submarine-launched JL-3 ballistic missiles, while its new generation strategic bomber, the H-20, is expected to be ready for delivery this year – giving China the nuclear triad of submarines, ballistic missiles and bombers.

Hu’s post received wide support on social media network Weibo, China’s Twitter.

China is one of five recognised nuclear powers under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Its nuclear arsenal is believed to be comparable to those of Britain and France, with about 200 to 300 warheads.

In contrast, the US and Russia each had tens of thousands of nuclear weapons at the peak of the Cold War, but their arsenals in recent years have been reduced to about 4,000 warheads each.

According to Zhao Tong, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy in Beijing, the argument made by Hu and others for more warheads was not convincing. He said rising tensions with the US did not justify stockpiling more nuclear weapons, and that the country’s strategy was based on a doomsday scenario.

Although China never talks about its tactics, we all know that the PLA does have shorter range nuclear-capable missiles
Zhao Tong, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy in Beijing

“China’s nuclear capability was not designed for a good relationship – thus a bad relationship [with the US] makes no difference,” Zhao said.

“Concerns about national security in a new international environment are understandable, but in fact they are unfounded,” he added.

One argument from the hawkish voices in China is that it could be at a disadvantage in the event of a conflict because its nuclear arms were seen as strategic deterrence, while the US had tactical weapons.

But Zhao said the Chinese military would have plans and the capacity to deal with a regional conflict and to manage any escalation.

China dismisses US claims it carried out a nuclear test as ‘a distortion of the facts’

“Although China never talks about its tactics, we all know that the PLA does have shorter range nuclear-capable missiles,” Zhao said.

“Beijing may have given the impression that China would retaliate [against any nuclear attack] with a full-on nuclear war, but this is more about showing its determination – which is part of deterrence.”

After China detonated its first atomic bomb in 1964, the country declared that it would never use nuclear weapons unless it was being attacked with them.

The government in a defence white paper last year reiterated its commitment to “not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones unconditionally”.

It said: “China advocates the ultimate complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons. China does not engage in any nuclear arms race with any other country and keeps its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security.”

Zhao said if Beijing expanded its nuclear arsenal as other major powers reduced theirs it may be accused of breaking its promises and sabotaging international non-proliferation and arms control efforts – and that could seriously harm China’s credibility and national interests.

“Building up a large nuclear arsenal might make a country feel more fearsome, but it won’t win more respect,” he said, adding that such a move would not help Beijing’s global leadership ambitions.

“For generations, Chinese leaders have pledged that China would never seek hegemony,” he said. “This will be an indicator of whether China is keeping its word.”

Asked about the latest call to add to the stockpile on Friday, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said it was Hu’s “personal view” and that Beijing’s policy on nuclear arms control was consistent.

“China has always followed the principle of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons. We pursue a very responsible and restrained policy,” Hua said at a press briefing in Beijing.

She did not comment on China’s nuclear warheads, but said the country with the biggest arsenal should “further reduce its stocks drastically”.

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