When the United Arab Emirates and Israel signed their historic agreement to normalize relations, they were formalizing a shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics that has been in motion for years.
Some have sought to play down the significance of the pact, arguing that the accord does not change anything of substance. However, this deal was reached based on the realities on the ground and has three angles: It establishes a new order in the region by forming Israel-Arab country alliances, confronts rogue and destabilizing Islamist regimes, and raises the prospect of an Israel-Palestine peace deal once again.
The UAE-Israel accord is not comparable to those with Egypt and Jordan. The latter two were directly part of the Israel-Palestine conflict, having both previously been active combatants. By contrast, the UAE deal is born out of a positive desire for cooperation, rather than a reluctant acceptance of on-the-ground realities. Arguably, the catalyst was a recognition of the need to strengthen alliances against the increasingly poisonous and destabilizing approach favored by Turkey, Qatar, Iran, and their band of violent proxies.
In the eyes of Israel and the UAE, the U.S. “Maximum Pressure Campaign” has had a notably detrimental effect on the power of Tehran’s ayatollahs, primarily through economic pressure. Furthermore, Iran has been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic, which may well accelerate the country’s need to turn inward and finally stop funneling billions into some of the region’s most violent and hateful groups. While Israel, the UAE, and the United States will still regard Iran as a major threat, it is undoubtedly in a considerably weaker position.
However, a greater threat appears to be emerging in the form of Turkey, a country which, far from being an enemy of the West in recent decades, has at least on the surface been considered an ally. The State Department’s failed Turkey policy (as well as Ankara’s NATO membership) has unintentionally helped Recep Tayyip Erdogan to expand his authoritarian policies inside and outside the country and Ankara’s support for terrorist groups such as Hamas and other groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Increasingly, Turkey is becoming the region’s chief sponsor of Islamic extremism, a threat acutely felt in both Jerusalem and Abu Dhabi.
For instance, days before the accord, Israel backed Greece against Turkey in its east Mediterranean dispute and refused to sign any maritime agreement with Ankara. Additionally, Arab countries and Israel share the same opposition to Turkish intimidation and harassment of the Kurds. This deal is, therefore, the next step in a solidifying alliance between the Gulf states and Israel against Turkish and Iranian Islamism, presenting themselves as the West’s (and particularly America’s) natural security ally against it.
Twice before, in both 1981 and 2002, led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries have made attempts to reach a “grand bargain” peace accord with Israel. Both were serious attempts, but ultimately, these efforts were undermined. The first one was wrecked by Hafez Assad and Saddam Hussein as part of both of their cynical efforts to become effective leaders of the Arab world. On the second occasion, a bombing campaign by Hamas led to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ending talks.
As a result, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose alliance leads the Arab world, have reached the conclusion that “grand bargain” peace efforts will be undermined by Islamist backing states, such as Qatar, Iran, and Turkey, using the Palestinian issue to foment sectarian division and violence. It suggests that this bilateral approach of the UAE-Israel accord will be deployed repeatedly in the future.
The failure of grand bargain efforts can be laid partly at the door of organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad, backed by Turkey and Iran. They have done nothing but harm the Palestinian cause. For peace to reign between Palestine and Israel, it requires Palestinian leaders who act for Palestine’s interests and not operating as proxies.
The UAE-Israel agreement is the first of its kind. Two Middle Eastern countries have signed a deal based on joining forces to shape the future of the region, not border practicalities. This new alliance, combined with the pressure Turkey faces from Western countries, suggests that unless Erdogan changes tack from his hard-line and Islamist approach, his country will be viewed as the main obstacle to peace in the Middle East.
Raman Ghavami (@Raman_Ghavami) is an analyst based in London and the Middle East. He is currently working for a consultancy firm based in the United Kingdom with a focus on insurgency and counterinsurgency.
CORRECTION: In an earlier version of this article, this piece initially said Bashar Assad wrecked the first Gulf peace accord with Israel, but it was Hafez Assad who was president of Syria at the time. The Washington Examiner regrets the error.
