Red line or no, secrecy over China-Solomon Islands pact piques US suspicion

SYDNEY: One thing is crystal clear about the landmark security pact China and the Solomon Islands inked: hardly anyone knows what the final version actually says.

“I think it’s clear that only a handful of people in a very small circle have seen this agreement,” Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant US secretary of state for the bureau of East Asian and Pacific affairs, said in a call with reporters today. “And the prime minister himself has been quoted publicly as saying he would only share the details with China’s permission, which I think is a source of concern as well.”

Bear in mind that during their trip to the Solomon Islands capital of Honiara, Kritenbrink and National Security Council Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell met with Prime Minister Manasseh Damukana Sogavare and 30 members of his cabinet and senior staff for 90 minutes. Kritenbrink and Campbell also visited Fiji and Papua New Guinea.

In Australia, the agreement with China has sparked recrimination, charges of incompetence on the Australian government’s part, a grim warning by the defense minister that Australia must prepare for war and a pledge by the opposition Labor Party here to substantially boost Australian aid and engagement with the vast array of Pacific islands. Senate opposition leader Penny Wong said the party would spend an additional $525 million AUD over the next four years should it be elected on May 21. Australia plans to give $1.85 billion in total this year. Labor also said it would create a school to train national security personnel from the islands.

“We will work with our Pacific family to support specific projects that deliver real change in areas of health, economic growth, education, climate change adaptation and resilience,” she told reporters in Darwin. It should be noted that Australia is far and away the largest aid donor in the South Pacific, and there have been pointed insinuations here — including four days ago by Defense Minister Peter Dutton — that China bribed its way to the agreement, which could put Chinese military assets just 1,200 miles from the Australian coast.

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So far, it appears the only scant facts about the agreement come from a draft that was leaked. The Sydney Morning Herald broke the story that an unidentified Australian intelligence agency had pushed Solomons officials to leak the document. It was posted online by a political adviser to top opposition politician Daniel Suidani. Here’s how the Herald described the situation:

“Multiple [Australian] government and security sources confirmed that the Australian government was aware of the contents of the document for days before it mysteriously appeared online on March 24. The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have confirmed Australian intelligence services knew the secret deal had been in the works for months and decided to encourage a leak from within the Solomons as a last resort.”

The lack of what Kritenbrink called “transparency” on Sogavare’s part sparked much of the concern among Australian and American officials, given that the prime minister would not make the text public without China’s approval.

Events like this are often shrouded in the smoke of denials, half-truths and posturing. The latter appears to have been the case when Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared a “red line” had been drawn: Should China build a military base in the Solomons, Australia and the United States would respond. “Working together with our partners in New Zealand and, of course, the United States, I share the same red line that the US has when it comes to these issues and we’re very aware of that,” Morrison said.

However, he’s since backed away from that language, and US officials have been careful to say over and over again that the Solomons is a sovereign country that has the right to make agreements in its national interest.

Still, while the United States has not used the term “red line” — which comes with recent historical baggage related to Obama-era US policy in Syria — Kritenbrink pretty much declared there is one without saying so.

“We told the Solomon Islands leadership that the United States would respond if steps were taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power projection capabilities or a military installation in the Solomon Islands,” he said. “Prime Minister Sogavare reiterated in his public remarks noting specific assurances that there would be no military base, no long-term presence and no power projection capabilities.”

After the visit, the White House released a statement saying the US would “follow developments closely in consultation with regional partners,” and the US and Solomon Islands agreed to “launch a high level strategic dialogue to enhance communication to address mutual concerns and drive practical progress.

In particular, both sides agreed to discuss in greater detail security issues of mutual concern, economic and social development, public health, and finance and debt,” the read-out said.

So, if China does not build a military base in the Solomons, its prime minister may have pulled the neat trick of scaring and angering much of the South Pacific while also guaranteeing his country gets more aid, technical assistance and a much higher profile than it’s had around the world since the terrible battles during World War II on the island of Guadalcanal.